6 Comments

"[The United States of America] needlessly involves itself in China's Taiwan affairs."

All the world's advanced technology abilities are in the hands of a very small group of semi-conductor companies in Taiwan. The whole world has a major stake in the island. It is not merely a domestic civil issue, so framing it as such is disingenuous at best.

Expand full comment
Jun 9·edited Jun 9

1. Status was Zheng had conquered "wilderness" (Taiwan had cannibalism through much of the 19th century) and the Qing in turn conquered Zheng.

2. The first American Indians welcomed the pilgrims, then later asked for their help in attacking another tribe. Of course with what came later they would have reconsidered their immigration policy though one should note the Spanish had conquered or at least claimed most of North America and had a presence throughout the Southwest and California.

You make my points, though. China does not have a legitimate claim to Taiwan, it simply wants it and will seek to obtain the prize. As late as 2015-6 it might have been possible but China's aggressive behavior under Xi has unmasked the wolf and the free (if flawed) world is responding. Late, but it is responding. Peaceful reunification is not going to happen. If China invades and is successful (not a given) militarily, the price it will pay is further reduction in access to global markets for its exports. I suspect we are at risk on this for the next 5-7 years before he ages out. By that time China's dearth of children (not a happy thing for any society) will make it increasingly difficult to field large standing forces.

Sincerely,

Brian

Expand full comment

Qing did indeed invade in 1683 and conquered it before Japan grabbed it. Nonetheless, its people, both indigenous Taiwanese and mainlanders, have no interest in being taken over.

Even if CCP invades successfully, the price would be heavy and talent would drain just as it is from Hong Kong and China proper.

Expand full comment
author

“Qing did indeed invade in 1683 and conquered it before Japan grabbed it. Nonetheless, its people, both indigenous Taiwanese and mainlanders, have no interest in being taken over.” Hi Brian, only two questions here. 1. When the Qing “invaded” Taiwan in 1683, what was the status of Taiwan? (Zheng Jing, the son of Zheng Chenggong, established a government in Taiwan after his father expelled the Dutch in 1662. The Zheng regime considered itself a loyalist government to the Ming dynasty, resisting the Qing dynasty's rule. Although they administered Taiwan, they viewed themselves as part of a larger Chinese polity, aiming to eventually restore Ming rule in China. Thus, they did not recognize Qing sovereignty and continued to consider their government as part of China, albeit under a different dynasty.) 2. Was there a United States government in place in 1683? Did the indigenous people of North America at that time gladly welcome the rule of the current U.S. government?

Expand full comment

In reality, Taiwan was almost never part of China. It was invaded by retreating KMT. And the people there do not want to be under the CCP. America is in your face because your neighbors want our support.

Expand full comment
author

Hi Brian, thank you for your comment. In 1895, Taiwan was snatched by Japan from the Qing Dynasty, followed by a colonial rule for fifty years. In 1943, the Allied leaders issued the Cairo Declaration during the Cairo Conference, explicitly stating that after the war, territories taken by Japan, including Taiwan and its adjacent islands, shall be restored to China.

In 1945, following the end of World War II, the Republic of China government took over Taiwan in accordance with Allied arrangements and the Potsdam Declaration, ending Japanese colonial rule. The retreat of the Kuomintang (KMT) government to Taiwan in 1949, after losing the Chinese Civil War, did not involve a change in Taiwan's sovereignty as the island was already recognized under China following international agreements. Hope you finds this helpful: https://avalon.law.yale.edu/wwii/cairo.asp

Expand full comment